Portfolio
These are three of my highest-conviction ideas that I’m making available to everyone. Each has a different catalyst, but all three share one root cause: the market is still pricing yesterday’s structure onto a business whose trajectory already changed.
Micron (MU)
Micron is benefiting from a structural shift in AI memory demand that could last years, not quarters.
I made this case in public, on Seeking Alpha, last October — when MU traded at $212 and a forward P/E of 11, priced by the market like a commodity memory cyclical that would give its earnings back at the next downturn. The argument was that high-bandwidth memory had quietly turned memory manufacturers into critical, contracted suppliers of AI infrastructure. The multiple was pricing a company that no longer existed. It was my single largest holding then. It still is.
As of mid-July 2026, MU has carried a Strong Buy quant rating for more than a year without interruption — 369 consecutive days at last check — through a stretch that’s taken the stock to roughly $979, up about 360% from my entry. It still screens as inexpensive relative to its own sector: around 13x forward earnings, despite the move. I haven’t trimmed a share.
→ Read the original call: Micron: The Most Attractive Artificial Intelligence Play
Broadcom (AVGO)
Broadcom sits at the center of AI infrastructure, connecting compute, memory, and networking into a faster, more efficient system that hyperscalers increasingly depend on.
Every hyperscaler wants a path away from paying Nvidia’s full margin on merchant GPUs. That path runs through custom AI silicon — accelerators purpose-built for one company’s workload instead of sold off a shelf — and Broadcom is one of a small handful of firms with the design expertise and the manufacturing relationships to build them at scale. It also sells the networking silicon that stitches thousands of those chips together into one working system, which means it gets paid whether a hyperscaler buys merchant GPUs or builds its own.
→ Read the Febrary 2026 call : Broadcom: AI CapEx Panic Is Your Opportunity
FormFactor (FORM)
FormFactor is quietly becoming one of the critical enablers of advanced chip testing, positioned to benefit as semiconductor complexity continues to rise.
Every AI chip gets tested before it ships. Every stacked HBM module, every GPU, every custom accelerator has to pass through a probe card first — the physical interface that presses against a wafer and tells the fab which parts are good before anyone spends another dollar packaging the ones that aren’t. FormFactor holds somewhere between 18% and 22% of the overall probe card market and closer to 30% of the advanced segment — the specialized cards the AI-chip era actually requires. Customers have ranked it the top supplier in test subsystems for thirteen consecutive years, and Intel handed it its 2026 Epic Supplier Award this spring.
I own it at full size from $111 — roughly 30% below its all-time high of $160.27, a pullback that hit the whole semiconductor-equipment group and had almost nothing to do with FormFactor’s own numbers. The quant confirms it at 4.92, near the top of the scale. The math I’m underwriting: a model taking revenue from $785 million toward $1.6 billion by 2030 implies roughly a 15% revenue CAGR; EPS growing from $2.00 toward $5.00 implies something in the mid-20s. At $111, that’s about 22 times my 2030 earnings estimate, for a company sitting on a moat measured in patents — roughly 1,200 of them — and multi-year qualification cycles.
What would break the thesis: test intensity per HBM stack plateauing, or a competitor getting qualified at a major memory maker.
→ Full write-up: Coming later today.
Disclosure: I am long MU (from $212), AVGO (from $332), and FORM (from $111). This describes my personal portfolio and my own process. It’s informational only, not individualized investment advice. Do your own research.
Why I publish real positions for free
I could tease these the way most finance newsletters tease their winners — a vague sector call, no entry price, nothing you could hold me to later. I don’t, on purpose.
These three are full positions, not a watered-down preview. Same thesis, same entry price, same kill-switch I write for every name in the book. The free tier isn’t a simplified version of the research — it’s a subset of it.
Every call I publish, free or paid, gets graded in the monthly Scorecard. Losers included. If HBM demand rolls over, if a hyperscaler pulls its custom silicon in-house, if FormFactor’s probe cards get displaced — you’ll read about it here, with the number and what I got wrong. A track record only means something if it includes the calls that didn’t work.
That’s the honest answer to why any of this is free: it’s the only way to prove the process is real before I ask anyone to pay for the rest of it. Subscribe to the free research here.
The other twelve
These three are a small sample of what I’m actually buying and tracking. The full portfolio runs fifteen names, built through the same four-gate process: a 100-point trajectory score, an independent quant confirmation that runs in both directions — a Sell rating never enters this portfolio, no matter how good the story — a forensic filings review modeled after a short report that hit a position I actually held, and a pre-mortem I write against my own thesis before any name ships.
Paid subscribers get the other twelve, in full:
Every current Buy-rated position and highest-conviction idea in the book, with the entry price, the framework score, and the quant rating that confirmed it.
New names before they’re widely recognized — the same process that found FormFactor before the crowd arrived.
Position updates the moment a thesis changes, not a quarterly recap after the fact.
The explicit kill-switch for every position: what would have to happen for me to be wrong.
The companies I believe have the best shot at a multi-year re-rate, sized the way I actually size them — full positions and starter positions, with the reasoning behind each.
This isn’t a list of momentum names or a repackaged version of what’s already trending. It’s the same research-driven process that called Micron at a forward P/E of 11, applied to the other twelve names sitting in my own account right now.
The biggest re-rates get identified long before the headlines catch up to them. That’s where the full portfolio lives — before the consensus, not after it. You can read the free research every week. Join the paid list, and you get the whole book: updated in real time, graded in public, losers included.
